Showing posts with label Forex Strategies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Strategies. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Building Blocks Strategy

Building Blocks Strategy

Options are an extremely versatile investment tool. From speculation to hedging, they can be used by a variety of investors seeking more control over their financial assets.

This list reflects Building Blocks shipped with VOptions:

-Long Call

-Short Call

-Long Put

-Short Put

Long Call

Description

Call buying is a strategy used if the investor thinks that XYZ will advance in price. It is important, given the risk, that the investor have a clear idea about where the stock is going and when. Simply thinking XYZ is a "great company that is sure to go up" is not enough. A Call purchase based on such vague notions is likely to cause frustration as losses mount when the advance fails to materialize.

Buying Calls: Why?

For the most part, there are two types of Call buyers:

  • the bullish speculators wanting to take advantage of the leverage options can offer, and
  • the investor buying a Call as a substitute for buying the stock.

Risk/Reward Characteristics

Break-even Point: At expiration, the break-even poi

nt (B.E.) is equal to the strike price of the Call option plus the Call option's premium. Before expiration, the break-even point is lower.

Profit: Profits are unlimited as long as the underline

g stock continues in advance.

Loss: Losses are limited to the premium paid for the option. At expiration, for every point XYZ is above the strike price, the Call option increases an additiona

l point in value.

Time Decay: A call option's premium consists of both intrinsic value (if any) plus time value. As time passes, the time value portion of the Call erodes (i.e., decays). At expiration, the Call's value will equal its intrinsic value.

Changes in implied Volatility: Changes in the option's implied volatility has an effect on the "time value" portion of an option's premium. Thus, a change in

the option's implied volatility has the same effect as changing (+/-) the number of days remaining until the option's expiration.

Short Call


Description

The investor writing Call options should firmly believe that XYZ is not going up! XYZ doesn't have to go down, but it most definitely cannot go up. This is because the strategy's break-even point at expiration is a certain distance above the then current stock price. Thus, depending on the option's strike price, writing Call options can be a viewed as a neutral to bearish strategy.

Writing Calls: Why?

Writing uncovered ("naked") Call options is a strategy with very high risk for a small potential return. Given this obvious imbalance, why would a prudent investor wishing to preserve and build his or her capital write Calls?

  • Unaware of less risky "bearish" strategies.
  • Strongly believes XYZ "can't go any higher," and therefore, blind to the potential risks.
  • Time Decay.

Risk/Reward Characteristics

Break-even Point: At expiration, the break-even point (B.E.) is equal to the strike price of the Call option plus the Call option's premium. Before expiration, the break-even point is lower.

Profit: Profits are limited no matter how large the decline in XYZ.

Loss: Losses are unlimited!!

Time Decay: A Call option's premium consists of both intrinsic value (if any) plus time value. As time passes, the time value portion of the Call erodes (i.e

., decays). At expiration, the Call's value will equal its intrinsic value.

Changes in implied Volatility: Changes in the option's implied volatility has an effect on the "time value" portion of an option's premium.

Long Put


Description

Put buying is a strategy used if the investor thinks that XYZ will decline in price. It is often used in place of a short sale in XYZ stock. The speculative Put buyer looks for leverage, emphasizing the number of options he or she can purchase. The "insurance" Put buyer looks to protect a long position in the stock for a period of time covered by the option.

Put Purchase vs. Short Sale:

Prior to exchange-listed options, the average investor only had one choice if he or she wanted to put a bearish opinion into action - sell XYZ short. Now, with Put options, the investor can establish a bearish position while controlling the trade-offs between the position's risk and reward. Along with the difference in the profit and loss profiles, there are other non-dollar specific benefits as well.

Risk/Reward Characteristics

Break-even Point: At expiration, the break-even point is equal to the strike price of the Put option minus the Put option's premium. Before expiration, the break-even point is higher.

Profit: Profits are unlimited as long as the underlying stock continues to decline.

Loss: Losses are limited to the premium paid for the option.

Time Decay: Negative. A Put option's premium consists of both intrinsic value (if any) plus time value. As time passes, the time value portion of the Put erode

s (i.e., decays). At expiration, the Put's value will equal its intrinsic value.

Changes in implied Volatility: Changes in the option's implied volatility has an effect on the "time value" portion of an option's premium. Thus, a change in the option's implied volatility has the same effect as changing the number of days remaining until the option's expiration.

Short Put


Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Downtrend Boosts Performance

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

US Dollar depreciation has left our forex trading signals at an advantage through recent weeks, leading to clear outperformance in key trading strategies. Indeed, the Euro and other key currencies have reached multi-month highs against their US counterpart. Trend-following systems aggressively sold the US dollar into early declines and have clearly benefited from its continued downtrend.

Whether or not the USD continues to decline will be a key factor in whether Momentum-based trading signals can remain profitable. The biggest danger remains that currencies return to wide trading ranges—putting Momentum and Breakout systems at clear risk.






































Forex Trading Automated Systems Outlook

DailyFX+ System Trading Signals – Momentum2, Breakout2, and Range1 trading strategies remain as our top performers in the past 60 days of trade. We are nonetheless mindful that that Momentum2 and Breakout2 trades may underperform if currencies begin trading within wide ranges. Specifically, a US dollar recovery could put key medium to long-term trading signals at risk.

Forex_Trading

It will nonetheless be important to monitor US Dollar pairs through the near term and manage our trading biases accordingly. For the moment, we favor Momentum2 trading signals. Yet this could easily change if we see signs of rangebound markets, and we will update our Forex Trading Strategy Outlook accordingly.

DailyFX+ Forex Market Conditions Outlook

Forex_Trading

NOTE: Data has once again been changed. Due to the ineffectiveness of the 30-day horizon, we are returning to the original 90-day time horizon.

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 30 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 30 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s monthly range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Strategy – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.